Denver Nuggets • San Antonio Spurs (19/21)


Mar 4, 2019 |



LaMarcus Aldridge and the Spurs hope to continue their domination at home this season as they welcome the Denver Nuggets to San Antonio.Photo By – USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Nuggets are in second place in the Western Conference but enter today’s game in San Antonio as 1.5-point underdogs. The Spurs have been excellent at home with a record of 24-7 (20-11 ATS), while Denver is coming off back-to-back losses and has struggled on the road going 11-18 ATS. We break down the odds and best bets for this Western Conference tilt.



These teams have already played twice this season in back-to-back games near the end of December. The Spurs won 111-103 in San Antonio and lost by three points in Denver two days later. In both of those games the Nuggets came out firing and got out to early leads, with a 20-15 lead in San Antonio and a 27-18 lead in Denver. Take the Nuggets in the race to 20. 

Prediction: Race to 20 points – Denver (-112)


San Antonio averages a mediocre 55.7 points per game in the first half. Denver averages 57.9 ppg during the first 24 minutes, but that number dips to 55.6 ppg on the road which is bad news against a Spurs defense that hold opponents to an average of 53.9 ppg at AT&T Center. 

Back the Under on the first half total.

Prediction: First Half Total Points – Under 116.5 (-116)



Despite having one of the best centers in the league in Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets have struggled to defend opposing centers, allowing 23.7 ppg on 54.3 percent shooting to the position. This is a great matchup for the Spurs LaMarcus Aldridge who has logged the majority of his minutes at center this season.

In the first game this season between these teams, Aldridge went 13 for 19 from the floor for 27 points, he followed that up with 24 points in Denver two days later. LA averages 23.6 ppg on 53.2 percent shooting in San Antonio, significantly better than the 18.3 ppg and 48.4 percent shooting he puts up on the road. Expect him to have success again today and back the Over on his points. 

Prediction: LaMarcus Aldridge Points Over


The Spurs play at the seventh slowest pace in the league with 102.1 possessions per game, just one spot ahead of the Nuggets who average 101.7 per contest.

Denver struggles to score on the road, averaging 107.9 points per game (8.1 fewer points than they score at home) and the Spurs play much better defense in San Antonio allowing just 106.4 ppg (9.3 fewer than on the road).

With the Nuggets going 5-0 to the Under in their last five contests, and the Under hitting in 23 of the last 32 games played between these two sides in San Antonio, bet the Under again tonight.  

Prediction: Under 229.5 (-110)


Despite getting off to such a good start this season, oddsmakers have never been completely sold on the Nuggets who have looked like a completely different team away from Pepsi Center. Their average scoring margin at home has been an impressive +11 but that margin on the road is just -1.8. 

The Spurs have been another example of a team that has played much better in front of their home crowd with an average scoring margin of +7.3 in San Antonio, compared to an ugly -5.2 mark away from home.

The Nuggets are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games while the Spurs are 15-6 ATS in their previous 21 contests at home. Those trends are impossible to ignore so we’re leaning towards the Spurs winning and covering the small spread today. 

Prediction: San Antonio -1 (-110)

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