“Amazon should double again in the next three years,” Miller — an Amazon perma-bull — told CNBC. “The top line is going grow somewhere in the 225% range.”
Given that bullish revenue projection, the founder of Miller Value Partners said it’s not unrealistic to expect Amazon stock to double, noting that the online retailer’s “addressable market is so gigantic.”
Amazon is World’s Most Valuable Company
Amazon — whose 2017 revenue topped $177 billion — hit $1 trillion in market cap for the first time in September 2018. It then dropped due to the year-end selloff in late-2018. Despite the selloff, Amazon shares are still up 30% over the last 12 months.
On Monday (Jan. 7), Amazon stock (AMZN) closed at $1,629, up 3.4% — continuing a five-day rally, as seen in the Yahoo Finance chart below.
Amazon has now surpassed Apple to become the world’s most valuable public company, and Bill Miller doesn’t expect it to slow down anytime soon.
In contrast to Amazon’s bull run, Apple is another story, Miller said.
The stock that is most problematic in the short run is Apple because they missed so badly on their guidance…The Chinese slowdown has hit them.
Apple (AAPL) tanked to an 18-month low last week, due to an abrupt drop in iPhone and iPad demand from China, whose economy is flailing amid ongoing trade wars with the United States.
Apple Will Miss Q1 Revenue Projections by $5B
On January 2, Apple shares tanked 9% after CEO Tim Cook said the tech giant will miss its Q1 revenue projections by at least $5 billion. As CCN reported, Apple has been in serious trouble for some time.
On Dec. 21, 2018, AAPL flashed a bearish “death cross” for the first time in three years. The death cross is a fairly reliable predictor of bear markets. It occurs when a stock’s short-term moving average crosses below its long-term moving average.
The appearance of a death cross is usually followed by a mass sell-off, and that’s exactly what happened with Apple last week.
The sell-off continued Monday, with AAPL closing at $147.93, down 0.22%, on higher-than-average trading volume.
Financial analysts say when tech stocks like Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Netflix struggle, bitcoin prices tend to soften — touching off a weakening in the overall cryptocurrency market.
The impact is not immediate, but there is some correlation between the performance of the tech sector and the crypto market. However, experts claim there is very little correlation between the overall stock market and the crypto ecosystem.
Bill Miller’s Fund Invested $1 Billion in Bitcoin
Bill Miller previously called bitcoin digital “gold.” However, he said most other cryptocurrencies are worthless.
In December 2017, his Miller Value Partner (MVP) Fund invested $1 billion in bitcoin. It’s unclear what MVP’s allocation to bitcoin is now amid the Crypto Winter, but he likely scaled it back. Miller said he first bought bitcoin in 2014 at roughly $350.
Miller launched Miller Value Partners in 2016 after working at Legg Mason for 35 years, where he managed a fund that beat the S&P 500 for 15 years.
But despite these concerns, there are still tech stocks that look like great buys right now. TTM Technologies (NASDAQ:TTMI), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) are benefiting from their respective businesses and setting themselves up to grow for years to come.
This market leader is cheap for all the wrong reasons
Anders Bylund (TTM Technologies): Printed circuit boards aren’t going out of style anytime soon. Yet, the market acts as if this crucial part of all the electronics around us is going extinct in a hurry. It’s high time to snap up shares of this sector-leading — and very profitable — circuit-board maker.
Shares of TTM Technologies fell 45% lower in the second half of 2018. This plunge was not connected to disappointing business performance as the company knocked every earnings report out of the park. This was all about flagging investor confidence in TTM’s target markets, from smartphones and networking equipment to industrial machinery and computerized cars.
That market reaction might make sense for weaker hands in each niche of the markets, but TTM Technologies is a proven leader. In a commoditized sector where most of its direct rivals are getting by on net margins of 1% or below, TTM’s trailing net profits work out to 6% of the incoming revenue. Similar margin advantages hold true no matter what financial metric you’d like to explore, from gross and operating margins to returns on assets or on equity. This company stands head and shoulders above the rest and is perfectly equipped for weathering a few economic storms without losing any ground in the long run. If anything, TTM could very well snap up the remains of failing competitors through bankruptcy deals or opportunistic buyouts.
The stock traded for more than 20 times trailing earnings as recently as last summer, but it can be had for a measly 7 times earnings today. Don’t call it a turnaround when TTM’s stock starts to rise again — the company never really suffered a downturn in the first place.
Grab this beaten-down chip leader before it recovers
Steve Symington (NVIDIA): Shares of NVIDIA have plunged more than 50% since late September for a couple of reasons. First, high-flying tech stocks were hit particularly hard as the broader market pulled back in recent weeks. And second, the graphics-chip specialist is being punished after posting mixed third-quarter results last month. That’s not to say it was all bad news for NVIDIA; quarterly earnings actually beat expectations, but revenue fell short as cryptocurrency-related GPU purchases waned, leaving the industry with an inventory glut that will take some time to work through. Sure enough, revenue in the fourth quarter is expected to fall around 7% year over year, to $2.7 billion, marking a harsh reversal from the incredible growth that had repeatedly stunned Wall Street in prior quarters.
In the meantime, the market seems to be forgetting that this massively profitable company is working hard to diversify its revenue streams. If its industry-leading position in the gaming market isn’t enough, NVIDIA simultaneously enjoyed record sales from its datacenter, automotive, and professional visualization segments last quarter.
Once NVIDIA manages to clear its excess inventory and year-over-year growth resumes, I think the market will realize its long-term story remains firmly intact — and the stock should respond in kind.
Chris Neiger (Amazon): With Amazon’s share price up 317% over the past five years, it may seem like the time to buy Amazon stock has long past. But overlooking this tech stock now would be a huge mistake. That’s because Amazon’s tech opportunities are still very much in their early stages.
Amazon’s biggest technology bet has, of course, been the build-out of its cloud-computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS currently has 34% of the public cloud-computing market and easily outpaces its next rival, Microsoft, which holds 14% of the market. Market share aside, Amazon brought in $6.68 billion in AWS sales in the most recent quarter, with $2.1 billion in operating income. That’s impressive enough, and it gets even more exciting when you consider that the public cloud-computing market is expected to grow from $186 billion in 2018 to $302 billion in 2021.
Aside from its cloud-computing services, Amazon has emerged as an artificial intelligence leaderas well. The company implements varying levels of machine learning into its e-commerce platform to make suggestions for products and advertisements, and it also uses the tech in its Echo devices as well. All of this allows the company to operate its online retail business more precisely, advertise more efficiently, and make it easy for Echo users to make more purchases.
Investors looking for a tech stock that still has lots of room to grow sales and earnings from its growing AWS business and artificial intelligence should look to Amazon. The company may not be a traditional tech stock, but investors should look closer at how Amazon is using technology to expand into new markets and improve the ones it’s already dominating.
Should Nvidia be on your buy list? It’s on ours…
Motley Fool co-founders Tom and David Gardner have spent more than a decade beating the market. In fact, the newsletter they run, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has tripled the S&P!*
Tom and David just revealed their ten top stock picks for investors to buy right now. Nvidia made the list — but there are 9 other stocks you may be overlooking.