New Hampshire primary Democrats make final push in lead-up to New Hampshire primary (1/10)

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Democrats make final push in lead-up to New Hampshire primary

Democratic candidates are criss-crossing New Hampshire in last-ditch efforts to shore up votes before the first 2020 presidential primary is held on Tuesday....

Who needs to win the New Hampshire primary

The New Hampshire expectations game for (nearly) every candidate, explained.

By Ella Nilsen[email protected]  Feb 10, 2020, 9:50am EST

SOMERSWORTH, New Hampshire — After chaos in Iowa, the next primary has become the crucial early decider in the 2020 Democratic race.

Despite Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg both declaring victory after the extended, messy caucuses, the Associated Press was unable to declare a winner there. Now, all eyes are on New Hampshire.

“Twenty-four hours later, they’re still trying to figure out what happened in Iowa,” former Vice President Joe Biden joked at a Somersworth town hall last week. “At this rate, New Hampshire will be the first in the country to get the vote.”

The primary on Tuesday, February 11, will be a decisive moment for five top-tier candidates. Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 by a record number of votes, so he has big expectations to meet here. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) needs a win or a strong second-place finish after coming third in Iowa — particularly because she represents a neighboring state and is well-known here. Midwesterner Buttigieg is hoping to beat these two New England senators on their home turf and fend off a late rise from moderate Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). And while Biden’s team has been downplaying expectations here for months, he can’t afford to come stumbling out of New Hampshire after suffering a self-described “gut punch” in Iowa.

Some of the presidential campaigns — most notably Biden’s — are already tempering expectations for Tuesday, instead looking ahead to the more diverse early states of Nevada and South Carolina as the real start of their campaigns’ momentum. But a loss in New Hampshire could hamper those plans.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg campaigns in Salem, New Hampshire.
 Win McNamee/Getty Images

“Money’s going to winnow the field, and money follows results,” said Tom Rath, a veteran Republican strategist in New Hampshire. “Your donors get less enthusiastic if you don’t have some results to show them.”

Polls show a good chance of Sanders reprising his 2016 win. Buttigieg is in second place, with Warren and Biden tied for third. Klobuchar is also a wild card; recent polls show she’s on an upward trajectory, with large crowds and fundraising in the past week.

The narrative coming out of Iowa was largely about what a disaster the caucuses themselves were. That allowed winners and losers alike to skate into New Hampshire; no one has dropped out yet.

New Hampshire may not be as forgiving. Here’s a rundown of the top candidates and how they need to perform on Tuesday.

New Hampshire is all-important for Bernie Sanders

Sure, Sanders has a bit of a cushion after performing well in Iowa. But New Hampshire has special — and crucial — significance for him. Put simply, he can’t afford to lose here.

It’s not just that Sanders is from right next door in Vermont; he won New Hampshire in 2016 by 152,000 votes, a historic number. He’s the only Democrat in the 2020 field with anything close to that record.

“I think he needs to win, and I think he will do that,” said New Hampshire state Rep. Renny Cushing of Hampton, who endorsed Sanders in 2016 and 2020. “I didn’t say that in 2016, but I think we’re in a really different time. I think Bernie can beat Trump; other people may handicap it a different way.”

Sanders’s high-profile supporters in New Hampshire say they are not expecting him to replicate his 22-point win over Hillary Clinton in 2016; there are more than two choices this year.

Sen. Bernie Sanders greets supporters at Keene State College on February 9, 2020.
 Joe Raedle/Getty Images

“I think whoever wins New Hampshire is going to win by 3 to 5 points, and I think that would be a great win,” said Andru Volinsky, a Democratic candidate for governor and Sanders surrogate. “But what happened in 2016, first of all, it was a two-person race, so it was a binary decision. You can’t expect a similar outcome.”

Sanders’s history and familiarity here aren’t the only reasons he needs to do well. The next contest is Latino-heavy Nevada on February 22, and Sanders is banking on support from Latino voters to carry him into Super Tuesday strong. Nevada experts told me they’ll be watching the results coming out of the New Hampshire primary — making it all the more crucial for the Vermont senator.

Can lightning strike twice for Pete Buttigieg?

Buttigieg had a very good night in Iowa, which could set him up for another good one in New Hampshire.

Here’s the latest RealClearPolitics polling average for New Hampshire: Buttigieg is the purple line, and that upward trajectory started two days after the Iowa caucuses.


Of course, Iowa isn’t everything — New Hampshire has a long tradition of bucking Iowa’s results. But it’s undoubtedly a boost for Buttigieg, who has been drawing 1,500- and 1,800-person crowds this weekend. He still has plenty of competition among the moderate field; voters who like him tend to say they’re also considering Biden or Klobuchar.

New Hampshire could be a good electoral fit for Buttigieg. Even though voters here picked Sanders in 2016, the state also has a long history of electing moderate governors and members of Congress. That’s a mold some of Buttigieg’s New Hampshire supporters think he fits well.

“I believe he’s putting together a strong coalition of progressive Democrats, independents, and Republicans who no longer support the president,” said state Rep. Annie Kuster, a national campaign co-chair for Buttigieg. Kuster told me she knows people who voted for Trump in 2016 but are looking for another option in 2020 and considering Buttigieg.

“I want to make sure they have a place to land in the general election,” she said. “I know them, and they’re telling me he is a candidate they can vote for in November.”

Audience members listen to Pete Buttigieg at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire.
 Win McNamee/Getty Images

It’s also a critical time for the South Bend mayor to put up a strong finish. The whole 2020 contest is about to head into Nevada and South Carolina, where polls show Buttigieg is much weaker among nonwhite voters.

New Hampshire is Buttigieg’s real chance to prove he can go toe-to-toe with Sanders and Warren in their own backyards. The big question is whether New Hampshire will make this a two-person race between Buttigieg and Sanders or give another candidate a springboard.

Biden needs to pick things up after a downward slide

From the start, Biden’s team has projected confidence he can win the Democratic nomination even if he loses Iowa and New Hampshire. But Biden came in fourth in Iowa, a less-than-ideal result for the national frontrunner.

“I’m not going to sugarcoat it. We took a gut punch in Iowa, the whole process took a gut punch,” Biden told a crowd of voters in Somersworth. “But this is not the first time I’ve been knocked down.”

Biden didn’t give New Hampshire voters much reason to believe he’ll win here. “I took a hit in Iowa, and I’ll probably take a hit here,” he bluntly admitted during last week’s debate.

Already, Biden’s campaign staff and New Hampshire surrogates are trying to keep expectations for him low ahead of the primary and focus on the path to the nomination they believe runs through Nevada, South Carolina, and Super Tuesday.

Joe Biden greets supporters after speaking in Manchester, New Hampshire.
 Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images

“It’s longer than the first two,” said former New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Ned Helms, a prominent Biden supporter in the state. “There are some people that say ‘he’s out of it.’ We haven’t hit South Carolina, we haven’t hit Super Tuesday, and as he said — it was a tough one yesterday, but we’re not going anywhere.”

At least one longtime political expert in New Hampshire threw cold water on the idea that Biden could keep plugging away if he loses here as well. Because Biden’s entire pitch is electability and beating Trump, he has to start winning races soon. And Buttigieg could stand to gain the most from Biden’s fall.

“It’s certainly possible that the former vice president is going to put up not one but two fourth-place finishes in the first contests on the calendar,” said University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala. “The reason [African American voters] are with Biden is they felt it was pragmatic reasons, i.e., electability. I’m very skeptical the so-called electable candidate … will look as electable to South Carolina voters.”

New Hampshire is a crucial state for Warren

Iowa wasn’t horrible for Warren, but it also wasn’t great. She needs things to go well in New Hampshire on Tuesday night.

“I wouldn’t count her out,” said Rath, the Republican strategist. Warren fits New Hampshire’s political mold; the state has a longtime history of electing women, and she’s a well-known entity across the border in Massachusetts as well.

Even though Warren has one of the best field organizations here, she has been lagging in New Hampshire polls for months and is currently tied for third with Biden. One recent CNN/University of New Hampshire poll showed her in single digits at 9 percent, just 4 points ahead of Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI).

After flying high in the fall, a combination of attacks by Buttigieg on her Medicare-for-all plan, a nasty public fight with Sanders, and persistent (often gendered) questions about her electability have seen her support drop.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren speaks at a rally in Concord, New Hampshire. 
Scott Olson/Getty Images

“She is in a bit of limbo at this point,” Scala said. “Her niche of support here was relatively narrow. Buttigieg has been blocking her among college-educated voters.”

Some of her prominent New Hampshire surrogates are also trying to keep expectations relatively low for her here, and her campaign already put out a memo looking ahead to Super Tuesday and beyond.

“I think it’s very possible we may have four candidates emerging from New Hampshire; it’s not a must-win for any of them,” said former chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party Kathy Sullivan, a Warren backer. “New Hampshire never picks the president — what we do is maybe clarify matters.”

Amy Klobuchar is making a stand in New Hampshire

Iowa was supposed to be Klobuchar’s moment, and it just wasn’t. She ended in fifth place, which is not where the senator from Minnesota needs to be heading into the primary.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar campaigns in Concord, New Hampshire, on February 8, 2020.
 Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Still, there’s a chance she could have a New Hampshire bump. Klobuchar perhaps benefited the most from the confusion in Iowa, and she’s campaigning hard here to make up the difference. That was reflected in some good polling, large crowds, and impressive fundraising numbers for her by the end of the weekend. If nothing else, Klobuchar could be a real threat to her fellow moderates Buttigieg and Biden, eating into their bases.

Although voters are taking a close look at her — and despite multiple newspaper endorsements here — New Hampshire political experts told me she needed to put up a “shock the world” number in Iowa order to be seriously considered.

“She had momentum and Iowa stopped her,” Rath said. “I don’t know if you can reignite.”

Much like Biden, Klobuchar’s core pitch is electability. That means she needs to start winning elections. A bad New Hampshire loss could be the end of Klobuchar’s campaign.

Someone in the Gabbard, Yang, Steyer, and Bennet tier could surprise

Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang might not be getting talked about a lot by the national media, but they’ve been doing a lot of campaigning in New Hampshire — and voters are taking notice.

Gabbard, in particular, has billboards all over the state; she’s been surfing in New Hampshire’s freezing cold ocean and skiing on the slopes with supporters. It’s unlikely either she or Yang wins outright, but both could appeal to a very libertarian subset of New Hampshire voters. Either one could surprise on election night.

Steyer hasn’t done much campaigning here, but his advertisements are everywhere. And Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) — who is staking his entire campaign on New Hampshire — is polling at 0.8 percent. But hey, he has James Carville’s endorsement

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Written by top40

Hello Again and Thanks for reading it is I David "Top40" Ellenberger with an update on the status of my lawsuit against Alphabet inc case # 4:20-CV-04877-SVK  and the website and life in general. By now if you regularly visit you may have read this section "author info" or Bio. So I am adding to it with more bio and more info. I originally liked the idea of voting on the internet 20-25 years ago when I first got online with WebTV (does anyone remember that?). The technology at that time was not advanced enough to easily be able to vote online or watch videos or much else for that matter but I was hooked and look at what we can do now with videos, IOT, and everything else, but I digress. I started about 5 years ago and the user base has been going up steadily ever since. I wanted to be another Facebook, with music and voting and that is all coming together slowly but surely. BTW if you want to help or have any interest please feel free to email me anytime.  Now in my previous Author Info or bio page I made it clear or at least I thought I made it clear, I am personally suing Alphabet inc. in Federal Court for Fraud. I have evidence to prove they are not counting all the pageviews, among other things and defrauding myself and probably millions of other website owners and content creators out of Billions of dollars. So if I wasn't clear or you didn't know it's true I am suing Alphabet inc. in Federal Court for Fraud the case was recently moved from my state of Kentucky to N. California to make it easier for Alphabet inc. to steam roll me or so they think. Needless to say if you are interested and I hope you are you can look the case up online under my name "David Russell Ellenberger" or the case # which is 4:20-CV-04877-SVK.

Now, I want to make it clear to you and everyone that I am not suing Alphabet inc. aka Google for fraud just because I want a million dollars for nothing. I am suing Google for fraud because I think they are committing  a serious crime with worldwide and societal ramifications, it is a  very serious problem.  I am suing Google for fraud because to put it simply the analytics numbers don't add up at least not in my favor or yours, there is something very fishy going on with the Google analytics numbers. Of course Google has an excuse for every one of them but I have reasons and the actual numbers and they don't add up, more about the numbers later. Companies like Google are making Billions of dollars a year in profits telling us data is the most valuable thing and misleading us and misdirecting the media and the world every chance they can.  Now data is valuable and they are making billions in profits seemingly like magic but there is no magic to it just corruption and lies. One thing Alphabet inc. aka Google is really making their money from and that is advertising dollars and they are putting all of this advertising on the websites other people have created. Websites that I have created and  websites you have created and websites millions of others around the world have created websites or content. For example Just writing a text is creating content and that's where Google puts the billions in advertising they receive and keeping most of it for themselves. Yes content others have created and yet somehow they are keeping almost all of these billions for themselves and not distributing it equitably to the real workers the true content creators who actually deserve the advertising monies. Google has made it's billions on the backs of you and me. Think about that for a minute, how can they continue to justify this? They Can't, it has to change.

For example if I were to prevail in the current lawsuit just half of the monies or $20 billion put into a basic account and compounded at 5% annually we could realistically employ over 800,000 people at $24,000 a year, indefinitely.  Sounds unbelievable but its true and if we only employed 400,000 people we could pay them $48,000 a year indefinitely. Its all true. Its simply a matter of having the money and the will to do it. Now is 400,000 people a lot well yes it would be more employees than almost any other company in the world and more than half the population of the entire city of Louisville, Ky.

I David Russell Ellenberger through my website am suing Google to try to help right a wrong. A wrong committed by Google that has simply gotten out of hand. Most people may think they can't do anything about it. Nothing can stop Google, the politicians don't care they use all of Googles data to further their own campaigns and line their own pockets while the rest of us keep on creating the content for Google, nothing can be done, this however is not the case, we can do something. The politicians and Alphabet inc. aka Google have done nothing to help society at large other than organize it so they can keep more money in secret and pay off all their buddies with their fraudulently obtained money. It's gotten so bad that the politicians and others in control won't even talk about it, they ignore it and hope it goes away, they won't even try to stop google because it is helping them too much and maybe they are scared of Google or who knows what they may be thinking. But it looks like fraud and it's coming to an end.

I'm telling you we can do something and I David Russell Ellenberger an average citizen Content Creator am saying to you, I'm not scared of Google because I have nothing left to loose.  I David Russell Ellenberger am telling you there is something you too can do, if nothing else, tell all your friends to come to aka IT40, believe these words and Create your Content. Further I promise to you and all who read this if I do prevail in my lawsuit against Alphabet Inc. I will use half of any monies I may receive to pay "content creators" a living wage. I pledge to anyone who is reading this, I will use half of any monies I may receive to help those who really do want to work on the internet and create content and tell us what they think. I will use half of any money so you can Get Paid, I want you to get paid for the content you create and get paid everyday and Get Paid to Vote create data and to be able to do this work online and from your home or anywhere in the world you care to be. Because in the words of an ancient scholar Y-O-U are the business Y-O-U are creating all the data, Y-O-U are the content creators and Y-O-U are all that matters.

Now the main thing I want you to take away form this and to know, Alphabet inc. is and has been committing fraud against you, me and everyone who uses the internet. I don't think Google started out to defraud the world it has just degenerated into this endless morass of corruption and fraud and no one seems to care, Well I care and I know you care too.  Sadly Google has been doing this with impunity for years and it is only getting worse. Please don't let them fool you with their lies and obfuscation. Do some research create some content build a website and research the analytics numbers you will find I am right. Google owes you, me and everyone online thousands if not 10's of thousands of dollars for all the data and advertising dollars they have co-opted from you and the rest of the world. So join with me don't use any Google products or file your own lawsuit in federal court against Alphabet inc. I will be glad to help you any way I can and show you how to do it if need be. It will take a sincere effort on your part but it will definitely help your self esteem, society and the world.

Now that's about all I have to say on this subject for now.  I will tell you this if you want more information or you have questions or comments for me, my email is [email protected] Thank you for reading looking and listening and believing in Please tell all your friends about us and don't forget to vote Thumbs up or down and refresh your page when your done. oh yeah and those funny old men running for president vote on one of them too or not. One last Thing, I need all the help I can get I am only 1 person but together and with todays technology we can move mountains and reframe society and our world the way we want it to be. Thank you ttyl



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